The Oscars are the most important awards ceremony for films released the year prior. The 98th Academy Awards will commence on March 15th, 2026 and there is lots of competition this year. With ‘Sinners,’ directed by Ryan Coogler, breaking the record at sixteen nominations, and ‘One Battle After Another,’ directed by Paul Thomas Anderson, being the runner up at thirteen nominations, let’s break down the main four categories, their nominees, and who’s predicted to win the prize.

     Starting with Best Picture, these ten films are nominated this year: ‘The Secret Agent,’ directed by Kleber Mendonca Filho, ‘Bugonia,’ directed by Yorgos Lanthimos, ‘Marty Supreme,’ directed by Josh Safdie, ‘Train Dreams,’ directed by Clint Bentley, ‘F1,’ directed by Joseph Kosinski, ‘Sinners,’ ‘Frankenstein,’ directed by Guillermo del Toro, ‘Hamnet,’ directed by Chloe Zhao, ‘One Battle After Another,’ and ‘Sentimental Value,’ directed by Joachim Trier. It’s tied between ‘One Battle After Another’ and ‘Sinners,’ but it’s predicted that ‘One Battle After Another’ will take the statue home. The film has already received a few precursor awards such as Best Motion Picture- Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes as well as Best Picture at the Critic’s Choice Awards. ‘Sinners’ is a runner up.

     For Best Director, Paul Thomas Anderson, Ryan Coogler, Joachim Trier, Chloe Zhao, and Josh Safdie are nominated for their films, with Anderson expected to receive the award. This is Anderson’s fourth nomination for Best Director and his twenty-fourth overall without a win. Anderson won Best Director at both precursor awards ceremonies as well as a Directors Guild of America Award, or a DGA, for his film. This award heightens his probability to win the Oscar as it did for Sean Baker last year for his comedy-romance film ‘Anora,’ which Baker won four Oscars for, including Best Director and Picture.

    For Best Actor in a Leading Role, the nominees are: Timothee Chalamet for ‘Marty Supreme,’ Leonardo DiCaprio for ‘One Battle After Another,’ Ethan Hawke for ‘Blue Moon,’ Michael B. Jordan for ‘Sinners,’ and Wagner Moura for ‘The Secret Agent.’ The Academy Award is expected to go to Chalamet, who is on his third acting nomination. Chalamet also won two precursor awards for his role as Marty Mauser in ‘Marty Supreme’, the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical and the Critic’s Choice Award for Best Actor. Jordan is a runner up to this award but hasn’t won any precursor awards.

     For Best Actress in a Leading Role, the nominees are:  Jessie Buckley for ‘Hamnet,’ Rose Byrne for ‘If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You,’ Kate Hudson for ‘Song Sung Blue,’ Renate Reinsve for ‘Sentimental Value,’ and Emma Stone in ‘Bugonia.’ Buckley is predicted to win, with Byrne as the runner up. Buckley, like Chalamet, won multiple precursor awards for her role as Shakespeare’s wife in ‘Hamnet.’ She won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama and the Critic’s Choice Award for Best Actress. Byrne, the runner up, also won a Golden Globe for her performance as an exhausted and overworked mother in ‘If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You.’ While the race may come close between Byrne and Buckley, Buckley seems to be taking the award home.

     The competition is incredibly tight this year, but there is still some time to alter predictions as more awards ceremonies approach before the Oscars. There’s the SAG Awards that premiere on March 1st, and the BAFTAs that will commence on February 22nd. Until then, these predictions are locked in on these select nominees.